Warming temperatures, severe heat, drought, wildfire, and major storms will “increasingly disrupt agricultural productivity,” threatening livelihoods but also food security, quality, and price stability
- Yale University
Climate change due to more extreme weather will lead to greater food supply shocks and as a result more volatile prices. While scientists estimate that staple grains such as rice, wheat and corn could by the end of the century face yield declines up to 60%, facing greater impact in the short term are the impacts of climate change on luxury staples. Crops such as Coffee (3 years), Olives (7 years), Almonds (8 years) with long maturation rates.
While hypothetically a climate induced shortfall in a basic agricultural commodity like wheat in one part of the world, could be compensated for by sowing fields in another, it is not possible to plant a new orchard of olive trees in the event of a climate caused supply shock.
Since agricultural producers cannot ramp up the supply of luxury staples to meet shortfalls, the only way to protect your business from supply shocks is to know when to pre-emptively build up inventory.
Scarcity Analytics aims to do its part to help insulate those most reliant on such luxury staples for their business models from the impacts of Climate change. We aim to be a climate analyst in your pocket. While big firms like Starbucks can afford their own crop analytics team, your medium or small sized firm does not have equivalent resources to monitor specialized environmental data to determine the impact of a changing climate on their livelihoods. We aim to provide your bussiness with the information it needs to be climate resilient supply chains for the 21’st century.
Our Model
Our model focuses on luxury staples,
Goods that while technically not necessities, are in such common household use that they are crucial for quality of life and thus highly demand-inflexible.
Luxury Staples while not universally tend to be highly environmentally constrained, sensitive to swings in environmental variables such as temperature, sunlight, or water volume, while also having long organism maturation periods.
For luxury staples it is not possible to immediately ramp up production in one part of the world to account for climate-induced agricultural declines in another.
You cannot snap your fingers and have an entire grove of new coffee trees ready to bear fruit to meet global demand in a year.
Developing inventory thus remains the only option for the consumer to mitigate the impact of price shocks.
Our goal is to allow our customers to do just that. Scarcity Analytics aims to provide access to pre-emptive pricing information for the agricultural goods your business needs to operate. Allowing your company to build up its inventory of a key good at a reduced price, instead of paying the elevated costs of purchasing after an environmentally driven supply shock.